Probabilistic modelling of the vote in multiparty systems

Project Directors Prof. Dr. Paul W. Thurner, Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Franz Urban Pappi MZES / DFG-funded 1997 – 1998

Research question/goal:

The vote in multiparty systems is a discrete choice between several alternatives. Conditional logit models are appropriate for this type of decision. In this project, these models were applied to explain the voting decision in several German elections. It could be shown, that issue distances have a significant impact on the vote if the model is specified correctly.

Publications

Books

  • Thurner, Paul W. (1998): Wählen als rationale Entscheidung. Die Modellierung von Politikreaktionen im Mehrparteiensystem. München, Oldenbourg. More

Journal Articles

  • Thurner, Paul W. (2000): Überhangmandate: theoretisch und empirisch unerschöpft. Rezension von Holger Jakob: Überhangmandat und Gleichheit der Wahl. Ein Beitrag zur aktuellen Wahlrechtsdiskusison. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 31, 2, 493-494. More
  • Thurner, Paul W. (2000): The empirical application of the spatial theory of voting in multiparty systems with random utility models. Electoral Studies, 19, 493-517. More
  • Thurner, Paul W., Angelika Eymann (2000): Policy-specific alienation and indifference in the calculus of voting: A simultaneous model of party choice and abstention. Public Choice, 102, 51-77. More
  • Thurner, Paul W. (1999): Taktisch oder Aufrichtig? Zur Untersuchung des Stimmensplittings bei Bundestagswahlen. Eine Replik auf Harald Schoens Beitrag in Heft 2/1998 der Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 30, 1, 163-166. More

Reports

  • Thurner, Paul W., Angelika Eymann, Franz Urban Pappi (2000): Voter Reactions Towards EMU: Did Foreign Trade Sensitivity Matter?. Washington . More

MZES Working Papers

  • Thurner, Paul W., Franz Urban Pappi (1999): Causes and Effects of Coalition Preferences in a Mixed-Member Proportional System. 1, Mannheim, MZES. More
  • Thurner, Paul W., Angelika Eymann (1997): Policy-Specific Alienation and Indifference in the Calculus of Voting: A Simultaneous Model of Party Choice and Abstention. 18, Mannheim, MZES. More
  • Thurner, Paul W. (1996): Estimating the Parameters of a Spatial Voting Model with Multiattributive Random Utility Models. An Empirical Analysis of the 1990 Bundestag Election. 13, Mannheim, MZES. More