Research question/goal:

The proposed project asks how stable or volatile Germans’ foreign and security policy opinions are in the current period of fundamental change of the international order—and which mechanisms underpin the stability or change in these opinions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the strategic re‑orientation of the United States and China’s rapid ascent challenge the rule-based international order and lead to a return of traditional security threats to the European continent. Germany’s recent policy shifts reflect this turbulence: Berlin has announced record defence spending, assumed a forward posture in the Baltic and begun decoupling sensitive economic sectors from authoritarian trading partners. Yet in a democracy such far‑reaching shifts remain viable only if they rest on broad and durable public consent. Understanding German public opinion and what drives it in this time of international change is hence crucial for evaluating the democratic legitimacy and the likely durability of costly new policies. Furthermore, studying the evolution of public opinion in this specific context provides the opportunity to extend our knowledge about public opinion on foreign and security policy more broadly, hence promising general scientific progress.