(2019):
Zwischen Polarisierung und Beharrung: Die Bundestagswahl 2017.
3,
1,
404.
Baden-Baden,
Nomos.
More
(GLES) Campaign Dynamics of Media Coverage and Public Opinion
Project Directors
Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck
Project Staff
Simon Ellerbrock,
Dr. Christian Schnaudt
MZES, DFG-funded
2009 – 2025
Research question/goal:
The 2005 German federal election marked a culmination point of changes that had been going on for decades as a consequence of general social change and that were additionally spurred by German unification. These changes concern the behaviour of voters, the instability of which has reached unprecedented heights, as well as the context within which voting decisions are made, including the parties and their candidates, the campaigns run by them, and the mass media. The confluence of these developments led to a substantial increase in the fluidity of the electoral process with potentially far-reaching implications for German representative democracy. Focusing on the three federal elections of 2009, 2013 and 2017, the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) observes and analyses how today’s mobile electorate adapts to this new constellation of electoral politics, which is characterized by a so far unknown degree of complexity. Using state-of-the-art methodologies, the project generates and extensively analyses a comprehensive, complex, and integrated data base that links cross-sectional with longitudinal data, both short-term and long-term. It combines surveys about voting behaviour with key dimensions of the context within which votes are cast, by means of analyses of media, candidates, and campaigns, and it spans several elections, covering both campaign periods and the time in between elections. All data generated by this hitherto most comprehensive programme of German electoral research are treated as a public good and made immediately accessible to all interested social scientists (via GESIS). Within the GLES network, this MZES project is responsible for conducting two components of the project for the 2009, 2013 and 2017 German federal elections: rolling cross-section campaign surveys (RCS) with post-election panel waves and content analyses of mass media coverage during the election campaigns.
Current stage:
In 2024, the project team was primarily concerned with the completion and submission of manuscripts and journal articles. Among other things, the team conducted research on everyday political conversations, social polarisation in Germany, belief in conspiracy theories in society, and their consequences for the perceived integrity of democratic elections. Furthermore, the effects of everyday contacts across party lines on affective polarisation are being investigated as part of a dissertation project. The GLES is now permanently anchored as an institutionalized election study at GESIS. All the latest news can be found at gles.eu.
Publications
Books
Edited Books
Book Chapters
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(2015): Data Bases and Statistical Systems: Political Behavior and Elections. 5, 2, 824-829. Oxford, Elsevier. More
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(2014): Activation of Fundamentals in German Campaigns. 217-237. Oxford, Oxford University Press. More
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(2014): Die Dynamik von Mobilisierung und Meinungswandel im Wahlkampf. 2, 73 – 87. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2013): Helfen politische Gespräche, "korrekt" zu wählen? Eine Analyse zur Bundestagswahl 2009. 117-138. Wiesbaden, Springer VS. More
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(2012): Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland: Stand und Perspektiven zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts. 45, 2 -39. Baden-Baden, Nomos-Verlag. More
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(2012): Einflüsse politischer Gesprächspartner auf Parteipräferenzen: Zur 'sozialen Logik' des politischen Verhaltens bei der Bundestagswahl 2009. 45, 465 - 488. Baden-Baden, Nomos-Verlag. More
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(2012): Dauerhaft oder temporär? Zur Bedeutung des Migrationshintergrunds für Wahlbeteiligung und Parteiwahl bei der Bundestagswahl 2009. 157-178. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2011): Die überschätzte Gefahr: Beeinflussen (getwitterte) Umfrageergebnisse Wahlentscheidungen?. 177-191. Frankfurt/New York, Campus. More
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(2011): Political Participation - National Election Study. 1123-1137. Opladen/Farmington Hills, Budrich UniPress. More
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(2011): Geringe Polarisierung, unklare Mehrheiten und starke Personalisierung: Parteien und Wähler im Wahlkampf. 33-57. Baden-Baden, Nomos. More
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(2010): Das Internet als Wahlkampfinstrument: Die Nachfrageseite. 309–318. Münster, Lit Verlag. More
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(2010): Die deutsche Wahlforschung und die German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). 141-172. Wiesbaden, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. More
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(2010): Das TV-Duell 2009 - langweilig, wirkungslos, nutzlos? Ergebnisse eines Experiments zur Wirkung der Fernsehdebatte zwischen Angela Merkel und Frank-Walter Steinmeier. 147 - 166. München, Olzog. More
Journal Articles
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(2020): Book Review: Populism, nativism, and economic uncertainty. Playing the blame game in the 2017 British, French, and German Elections. Democratization, 27, 3, 502-504. More
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(2019): Political Systems and Electoral Behavior: a Review of Internationally Comparative Multilevel Research. Cross-national Comparative Research (Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, Special Issue), 71, Suppl. 1, 343-373. More
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(2019): Comparative Corrective Action: Perceived Media Bias and Political Action in 17 Countries. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, (e-only). More
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(2018): Die Rolle von Wahlumfragen: Faktoren der Wahlentscheidung?. GWP: Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft, Politik, 67, 1, 17-23. More
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(2017): The ‘Alternative für Deutschland’ in the Electorate: Between Single-Issue and Right-Wing Populist Party. German Politics, 26, 1, 124-148. More
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(2017): Introduction: Parties and Voters at the 2013 German Federal Election. German Politics, 26, 1, 1-11. More
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(2016): Media and campaign effects on vote choice at national elections in Europe: A review of a multilingual research landscape. Studies in Communication | Media, 5, 2, 129-172. More
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(2015): Der Absturz der FDP - Die Rolle von Parteibewertung und Koalitionsüberlegungen bei den Bundestagswahlen 2009 und 2013. Politische Psychologie, 4, 1, 43-64. More
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(2015): The Impact of Online versus Offline Campaign Information on Citizens’ Knowledge, Attitudes and Political Behaviour: Comparing the German Federal Elections of 2005 and 2009. German Politics, 24, 4, 507-524. More
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(2013): Seeking the Soul of Democracy: A Review of Recent Research into Citizens’ Political Talk Culture. Swiss Political Science Review, 19, 4, 513-538. More
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(2012): Short-term factors versus long-term values: Explaining the 2009 election results. Electoral Studies, 31, 1, 20–34. More
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(2011): The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2009 German General Election. German Politics, 20, 1, 28-50. More
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(2011): 'Miniature Campaigns' in Comparison: The German Televised Debates, 2002-09. German Politics, 20, 1, 75-91. More
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(2010): Social networks and mass media as mobilizers and demobilizers: A study of turnout at a German local election. Electoral Studies, 29, 3, 392-404. More
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(2010): Dynamische Analyse von Wahlkampfprozessen. Rolling Cross-Section Survey. Stadtforschung und Statistik, 2, 32 - 44. More
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(2010): The German Federal Election of 2009: Sprouting Coalitions, Drooping Social Democrats. West European Politics, 33, 4, 894–903. More
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(2009): Die hessische Landtagswahl vom 18. Januar 2009: der 'ewige Koch'. Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 40, 2, 358-370. More
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(2009): Die hessische Landtagswahl vom 27. Januar 2008: Wiederkehr der "hessischen Verhältnisse". Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 40, 1, 16-34. More
Presentations
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(2023): “Antidote revisited”. On the causal relationship between cross-partisan conversations and affective polarization. [13th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Glasgow, 21/06/2023 - 23/06/2023]. More
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(2018): Effects of Election Campaigns: The Role of Citizens’ Interpersonal Communication. [Lecture at the International ICA Summer School in Political Communication and Electoral Behavior, Università degli Studi di Milano, 12/07/2018 - 12/07/2018]. More
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(2018): Media Bias and Voter Preferences at the 2009 to 2017 German Federal Elections. [Invited talk at Koç University, Istanbul, 17/12/2018 - 17/12/2018]. More
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(2018): What's in Yesterday's News: Media Bias and Voter Preferences at the 2009 and 2013 German Federal Elections. [GLES-Projekttreffen, Berlin, 15/11/2018 - 15/11/2018]. More
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(2018): The Populist Moment? Populism and Nativism in the Leading Western Democracies. [Conference of the Cross-National Election Project (CNEP), Bogotá, 20/09/2018 - 21/09/2018]. More
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(2017): Die AfD vor der Bundestagswahl 2017: eine wahlsoziologische Perspektive. [16.Tagung der Fachgruppe Sozialpsychologie (FGSP), Ulm, 03/09/2017 - 05/09/2017]. More
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(2017): Die Bundestagswahl 2017: Kampagnendynamik und Hintergründe der Parteiwahl. [Doktoranden- und Masterkolloquium Vergleichende Politik und Politisches System der EU, Institut für Politikwissenschaft der Universität Bern, 17/12/2017 - 17/12/2017]. More
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(2015): A Theory of Discussant Influence on Vote Choice in Multiparty Systems. [Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, 21/10/2015 - 21/10/2015]. More
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(2015): Late deciders and campaign effects in a comparative perspective: The cases of Germany and Italy in 2013. [9th ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, 25/08/2015 - 28/08/2015]. More
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(2015): The activation of fundamentals during election campaigns: What are the mechanisms?. [Workshop "Enlightenment or Manipulation? Mass Media and Electoral Campaigns", University of Milan, 25/05/2015 - 25/05/2015]. More
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(2014): The German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). [Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Conference, WZB Berlin, 08/10/2014 - 10/10/2014]. More
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(2014): The 2013 German Federal Election. [COST/The True European Voter: 5th Winterschool on Methodological Issues in Comparative Electoral Analysis, MZES, Mannheim, 04/03/2014 - 08/03/2014]. More
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(2013): Degrees of Disagreement: Discussant Influence on Vote Choice in the German Multi-Party System. [MPSA Annual Conference, Chicago/Ill., 10/04/2013 - 13/04/2013]. More
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(2013): Responsive Elections: The Effect of Public Opinion on Political Campaigns. [Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference, Chicago, Illinois, 10/04/2013 - 13/04/2013]. More
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(2013): Calm in the Eye of the Storm: Parties and Voters Facing the 2013 German Federal Election. [Roundtable '2013 German Federal Election' of the Minda De Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge/MA, 18/09/2013 - 18/09/2013]. More
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(2013): European Research into Media and Campaign Effects on Voting at National Elections: More Gaps than Substance, but the Substance Is Sound. [Meeting of the COST Action "The True European Voter", Dublin, 09/10/2013 - 11/10/2013]. More
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(2013): Campaign activation in German elections: Evidence from 2005 and 2009. [MPSA Annual Conference, Chicago/Ill., 10/04/2013 - 13/04/2013]. More
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(2012): CAPing the GLES. [5th Annual Conference of the Comparative Policy Agendas Project (CAP), Reims, 13/06/2012 - 15/06/2012]. More
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(2012): Campaign Coverage on Candidates and its Effect on Candidate Evaluations and Voting Behaviour. [IPSA-XXII World Congress of Political Science, Madrid, 07/07/2012 - 11/07/2012]. More
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(2012): Campaign activation in German Elections: Evidence from 2005 and 2009. [2nd Annual General Conference Of The European Political Science Association, Berlin, 20/06/2012 - 22/06/2012]. More
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(2012): Activation of fundamentals in German campaigns. [Authors’ conference of "Voters on the move or on the run?", Berlin, 22/07/2012 - 23/07/2012]. More
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(2011): Statistische Verfahren zur Analyse von Wahlkampfdynamiken mit RCS-Daten. [Jährliches Treffen der Wahlstudien Österreichs (AUTNES), der Schweiz (selects) und Deutschlands (GLES), Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, 23/11/2011 - 24/11/2011]. More
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(2011): The Campaign Dynamics of Response Latencies: Evidence from Two Rolling Cross-Section Surveys. [69th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, Ill., 30/03/2011 - 02/04/2011]. More
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(2011): Needs and Debates. The Moderating Impact of "Need to Evaluate" and "Need for Cognition" on Perceptions and Effects of Televised Debates. [33rd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP), San Francisco, CA, 06/07/2011 - 09/07/2011]. More
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(2011): The "Social Logic" of Demobilization: Political Discussant Influence on Turnout and Abstention at the 2009 German General Election. [6th ECPR General Conference, Reykjavik, 24/08/2011 - 26/08/2011]. More
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(2011): Conditions for dyadic partisan agreement and disagreement: An analysis of voters' social networks at the 2009 German Federal Election. [2011 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Seattle/WA, 31/08/2011 - 01/09/2011]. More
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(2011): Conditions for dyadic partisan agreement and disagreement: An analysis of voters' social networks at the 2009 German Federal Election. [69th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago/Ill., 30/03/2011 - 02/04/2011]. More
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(2011): Better late than never: campaign deciders at the 2005 German Parliamentary Election. [Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago/Ill., 30/03/2011 - 02/04/2011]. More
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(2010): It's the Media, Stupid, isn't it? The Impact of the Media on Viewers' Perceptions of the 2009 German Televised Debate. [33rd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP), San Francisco, CA, 06/07/2010 - 09/07/2010]. More
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(2010): Coalition Preferences and Voting Behaviour at the 2009 German Federal Election. [APSA Annual Conference, Washington D.C., 01/09/2010 - 04/09/2010]. More
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(2010): Politisches Lernen im Wahlkampf bei der Bundestagswahl 2009. [Jahrestagung des AK Wahlen, DVPW, Berlin, 23/06/2010 - 24/06/2010]. More
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(2010): One, Two, or Three Agendas? Exploring the Interdependence between Televised Debates, Media Coverage, and Public Opinion in 2009 German National Election Campaign. [3rd European Communication Conference of the European Communication Research and Education Association (ECREA), Hamburg, 11/10/2010 - 14/10/2010]. More
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(2010): Yet another Miniature Campaign. The 2009 German Televised Debate in Perspective. [2010 Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) Conference, Essex, 09/09/2010 - 11/09/2010]. More
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(2010): Yet another Miniature Campaign. The 2009 German Televised Debate in Perspective. [36th Annual Conference of the International Association for the Study of German Politics (IASGP), London, 23/05/2010 - 24/05/2010]. More
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(2010): It's the Media, Stupid, isn't it? The Impact of the Media on Viewers' Perceptions of the 2009 German Televised Debate. [68th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), Chicago, Ill., 21/04/2010 - 24/04/2010]. More
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(2010): The Campaign and its Dynamics at the 2009 German General Election. [International Conference of Europeanist der Council for European Studies (CES), Montreal, 14/04/2010 - 16/04/2010]. More
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(2010): ‘Miniature Campaigns’ in Comparison: The German Televised Debates, 2002-2009. [APSA 2010 Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, 31/08/2010 - 04/09/2010]. More
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(2010): Medien- und Kampagnenanalysen im Rahmen von Wahlstudien am Beispiel der German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). [Workshop Wahlstudien in Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz, Lausanne, 17/10/2010 - 18/10/2010]. More
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(2010): Massenkommunikation in der German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). [Empirisches Kolloquium des Instituts für Publizistik, Mainz, 25/10/2010 - 25/10/2010]. More
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(2010): Politische Informationsquellen der Wähler bei der Bundestagswahl 2009. [Tagung "Presse- und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit" der Bundestagsfraktion Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Berlin, 29/10/2010 - 29/10/2010]. More
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(2010): Trends der Wahlkampf-Kommunikation 2009. [Jahrestagung der de'ge'pol - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Politikberatung, Cadenabbia, 08/07/2010 - 10/07/2010]. More
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(2010): Die German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). [Workshop Wahlstudien in Deutschland, Österreich, Schweiz, Lausanne, 17/10/2010 - 18/10/2010]. More
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(2010): How Unified is Germany´s Electorate? Testing Competing Explanations of Electoral Choice in Eastern and Western Germany. [2010 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 01/09/2010 - 04/09/2010]. More
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(2010): Campaign Coverage on Candidates and its Effect on Voting Decisions. [GLES Young Researcher’s Network, Universität Frankfurt/ M, 24/11/2010 - 25/11/2010]. More
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(2009): Understanding the 2009 Election Outcome. [Conference: German Unification: Expectations and Outcomes, Rice University Houston, 29/10/2009 - 30/10/2009]. More
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(2009): 60 Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in der BRD. [Jahrestagung der Arbeitsgemeinschaft Sozialwissenschaftlicher Institute (ASI), Berlin, 19/11/2009 - 20/11/2009]. More
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(2009): Die Medieninhaltsanalyse im Rahmen der "German Longitudinal Election Study" (GLES) zur Bundestagswahl 2009. ["Media Analysis Workshop" der Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES), Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Universität Innsbruck, 25/11/2009 - 25/11/2009]. More
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(2009): Einstellungsänderungen im Verlauf von Wahlkampagnen. [Statistische Woche 2009, Bergische Universität Wuppertal, 04/10/2009 - 07/10/2009]. More
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(2009): Better late than never: Campaign Deciders at the 2005 German Parliamentary Election. [ECPR General Conference, Potsdam, 09/09/2009 - 11/09/2009]. More
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(2009): The German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). [Annual Conference of the International Communication Association (ICA), Chicago, IL, 20/05/2009 - 24/05/2009]. More
MZES Working Papers
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(2018): Kampagnendynamik bei der Bundestagswahl 2017: Die Rolling Cross-Section-Studie im Rahmen der „German Longitudinal Election Study“ 2017. 172, 42. Mannheim, MZES. More
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(2013): Kampagnendynamik bei der Bundestagswahl 2013: Die Rolling Cross-Section-Studie im Rahmen der „German Longitudinal Election Study“ 2013. 154, 30. Mannheim, MZES. More
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(2010): Kampagnendynamik bei der Bundestagswahl 2009: die Rolling Cross-Section-Studie im Rahmen der „German Longitudinal Election Study“ 2009. 134, Mannheim, MZES. More