CAIUS: Consequences of AI-Based Decision Making for Urban Societies

Project Directors Prof. Dr. Heiner Stuckenschmidt, Prof. Dr. Frauke Kreuter, Dr. Ruben L. Bach, Dr. Christoph Kern Project Staff Christoph Kilian Theil, Dr. Frederic Gerdon, Daria Szafran, João Areal Volkswagen Foundation-funded 2019 – 2025

Research question/goal:

The project CAIUS studied the unintended consequences of AI-based technologies in smart city contexts at the theoretical, empirical, and applied level. Focusing on real-world applications in resource allocation and service pricing, we investigated the impact of AI-based decision-making on urban societies. To this end and to advance theory on the digitisation of society, we conducted social simulations modelling AI-based decision-making, citizen behaviour, and individual attitudes. The parameters for these simulations were empirically grounded through large-scale surveys of public fairness perceptions and survey experiments conducted in Germany. The project explored two real-world use cases: the dynamic pricing of urban parking places and the algorithmic matching of refugees to locations within their host country.

Overall, the project results showed that public fairness perceptions are highly context-dependent and that semi-automated decision-making is favoured over fully automated approaches. Moreover, the simulations for the first use case showed that dynamic parking pricing, as tested and implemented in numerous cities worldwide, generally has a negative effect on the fairness of parking spaces for different income groups. The simulations for the second use case further highlighted that the effects the algorithmic matching of refugees differ: compared to random allocation, estimated improvements in employment outcomes due to algorithmic location assignment varied geographically and demographically, which in turn reinforces existing structural disparities between regions and groups of refugees.[NH1.1][PH1.2] Overall, the project showed the value of interdisciplinary research at the intersection of computer science and social science in studying the emerging challenges of AI applications in urban environments.


Publications

Book Chapters

  • Burton, Emanuelle, Nicholas Mattei, Andrés Páez (Eds.) Kappenberger, Jakob, Clara Strasser Ceballos, Frederic Gerdon, Daria Szafran, Heiner Stuckenschmidt, Ruben Bach, Frauke Kreuter, Christoph Kern, Kai Rupp (2025): Unintended impacts of automation for integration? Simulating integration outcomes of algorithm-based refugee allocation in Germany. Proceedings of the Eighth AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society (AIES-25), 2, 2, 1375-1387. Washington, DC, Association for the Advancement of ArtificialIntelligence. More
  • Calegari, Roberta, Virginia Dignum, Barry O'Sullivan (Eds.) Cohausz, Lea, Jakob Kappenberger, Heiner Stuckenschmidt (2024): Combining fairness and causal graphs to advance both. 3808, 1-14. Aachen, RWTH Aachen. More
  • Engel, Uwe, Anabel Quan-Haase, Sunny Liu, Lars E. Lyberg (Eds.) Keusch, Florian, Frauke Kreuter (2022): Digital trace data. Modes of data collection, applications, and errors at a glance. 100-118. London, Routledge. More

Journal Articles

  • Kern, Christoph, Jakob Kappenberger, Frederic Gerdon, Clara Strasser Ceballos, Daria Szafran, Kai Rupp, Ruben L. Bach (2025): A Simulation Framework for Studying the Social Impacts of Algorithm-Based Refugee Matching. Proceedings of Machine Learning Research : PMLR, 294, 487-491. More
  • Szafran, Daria, Ruben L. Bach (2025): Unfamiliar but desired: Citizens’ attitudes toward smart city applications. AI & Society, tba, tba, 1-18. More
  • Kappenberger, Jakob, Heiner Stuckenschmidt, Frederic Gerdon (2025): Pricing parking for fairness — A simulation study based on an empirically calibrated model of parking behavior. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 193, Article 104389, 1-29. More
  • Bach, Ruben L. (2024): Book Review: Applied Statistical Learning—With Case Studies in Stata. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Statistics in Society, 187, 3, 854–855. More

Presentations

  • Kreuter, Frauke (2019): Analyzing Administrative Data with Privacy Protection in Place. [Workshop "Privacy and the Science of Data Analysis", Berkeley, 07/04/2019 - 11/04/2019]. More
  • Kreuter, Frauke (2019): The Social Survey Statistician's Perspective on (Differential). [Workshop "Data Privacy: Foundations and Applications Boot Camp", Berkeley, 27/01/2019 - 31/01/2019]. More
  • Kreuter, Frauke (2019): Will Differential Privacy Transform Social Science. [SEM 2019 - 6th Annual Conference, Frankfurt, 15/08/2019 - 17/08/2019]. More